Clinton Holds Razor-Thin Lead
by Palmer Gibbs
As the presidential primary season lurches toward the finish line, the Democratic race will culminate in a down-to-the-wire contest in California between Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Clinton, who was up by 8.7 percent as recently as May 30, has seen her lead in the Golden State dwindle to just two points as of June 4, according to polling averages from RealClearPolitics.
Clinton is at 47.7 percent to Sanders' 45.7 percent, as the below InsideGov visualization shows. Toward the end of April, the gap narrowed for the first time after Sanders logged a string of victories, including big wins at the Washington caucus and the Wisconsin primary. But momentum swung back in Clinton's favor after she nabbed wins in delegate-rich states like New York and Pennsylvania. Her lead bounced back to 9.7 percent in mid-May.
Clinton's poll numbers went up when it looked as though she was tying up the nomination. Indeed, during an interview with CNN, she said she would be the Democratic nominee and "that is already done, in effect."
But Sanders has been all but camped out in California in the last few weeks, hanging his campaign's hopes on a strong showing during the state's June 7 primary. If Sanders pulls off an upset, or even keeps the results close, he will get a huge jolt of momentum -- and a boost to the argument that his candidacy remains viable despite Clinton's overall delegate lead.
While the two-point margin accounts for polling averages, one specific poll breaks out how each candidate is slated to do among certain populations. As has been the case throughout the primaries, Clinton looks to lean on her support among minorities during the California vote. She holds a 39-point lead among black voters, a 21-point lead among Asian voters and a six-point lead among Hispanic voters, according to data from a recent Survey USA poll.
It's interesting to note that Clinton also does well among California's white voters, who give her a 23-point advantage over Sanders. The Vermont senator has enjoyed strong support among white voters throughout the primaries, making Clinton's lead in California a noteworthy shakeup.
Sanders continues to hold an advantage over younger voters, who in California give him a five-point lead over Clinton. The same poll also shows that first-time voters overwhelmingly prefer Sanders to Clinton, 67 to 31 percent. But, as the above visualization shows, Clinton holds double-digit leads among voters 35 and older.
While many of these specific data points indicate a path to victory for Clinton in the California primary, the Sanders camp is touting those topline numbers -- boosted by recent polls from NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist and YouGov/CBS News -- that show he's just two points behind.
In fact, Sanders has spent the last few weeks arguing the nomination isn't official until the party convention on July 25. On Saturday, Sanders said the Democratic convention in Philadelphia would be "contested" because neither he nor Clinton would have the required number of pledged delegates at the end of the primary process. It's a rather remarkable shift from the beginning of the presidential race, when the Democratic contest looked demure compared to the schoolyard fights on the Republican side.
According to the latest counts, Clinton has 1,809 pledged delegates to Sanders' 1,520 delegates. The gap widens significantly when accounting for superdelegates. Clinton has 2,357 total delegates to Sanders' 1,566.
More AMERICAN POLITICS ...
- Clinton Regains Lead
- How Much Candidates Spent Per Vote
- Tim Kaine Cheat Sheet
- Mike Pence by the Numbers
- Americans Divided on Bathroom Bill
- Clinton's Stubborn 75 Percent Chance Finally Dips Following Email Revelations
- The 2016 Democratic Convention by the Numbers
- The 2016 Republican Convention by the Numbers
- Trump's Fundraising Turnaround: June Marked Best Month So Far
- Trump Captures His Largest Lead So Far in Polls
- Trump Pulls Ahead of Clinton in Key Swing States
- Donald Trump and America B
- House Sit-In Would've Been More Powerful if It Rejected 'No Fly, No Buy'
- Clinton's Foreign Policy Poses a Challenge to the Left
- Hillary Wants to Bring Back Bill. She Shouldn't
- The Real Reason Republicans Are Going after the IRS
- ISIS Must Love Trump
- Can Trump Ride the Anti-Immigration Wave to the White House?
- Trouble for Donald Trump's Campaign
- America's Most Followed Members of Congress
- Hillary Clinton's Major Foreign Policy Address Was Anything But
- Donald Trump Down in the Polls After Rough Week on the Trail
- There's No More Denying It: Trump Is Openly Racist
- Donald Trump: Joker's Wild
- After Orlando: Twitter Recoils from Islamophobia, Takes Aim at Gun Laws
- How Much Blame Should Hillary Clinton Bear for Libya?
- Countries That Receive the Most Foreign Aid From the U.S.
- Hillary Clinton Secures Democratic Nomination
- Welcome to Half Dome, Sponsored by Nike
- Companies Need to Stop Bankrolling Hate
- For Billionaire Donors, Academic Integrity Comes Cheap
- America's Cosmic Tax Gap
- Trump's 'Realty Check' on Climate
- Putin and Trump: Symptoms of Creeping Caesarism
- Obama Promised Open Government, But Hasn't Delivered Yet
- A Coalition of the Unhinged
- Putting Free Speech Out to Pasture
- The Only Sane Conclusion from Orlando
- Orlando Shooting Fuels Debate on Gun Control
- They're Killing Us. Help Us Stop Them
- A Commencement Address for the Most Indebted Class Ever
- Our Poverty Myth
- Which States Have Banned Assault Weapons?
- Government Agencies that Spend the Most
- The Government Agencies that Employ the Most People
- Odd Ways Political Campaigns Spend Their Money
- Congressional Districts with the Youngest and Oldest Voters
- Trump Nabs First Lead Against Clinton in Poll
- Bernie's Bucks: Sanders' Fundraising and Spending Prowess in 5 Charts
- Clinton Holds Razor-Thin Lead
- Doling Out the Dough for Pro-Clinton Super PACs
- States with the Most Women in Politics
- Do First Ladies Influence the Popularity of Baby Names?
- Counties Where Medicare Spends the Most per Patient
- We Live in a Democracy, Not a Theocracy
- Is Trump an American Exceptionalist?
- Sanders vs Clinton on Economic Inequality
- Nine Lessons for Navigating National Security
- Trumped Up Alliances?
- Big Money in Politics Drives War
- Why Clinton Supports the Trans-Pacific Partnership and Trump Does Not
- The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the 2016 US Presidential Election
- Obama: The Conflict Resolution President?
- Bernie Sanders Still the 2016 Fundraising Champ
- Inequality Will Get Worse Until There's a Revolution
- Crime Can Pay if It's Big Enough
- Political Campaigns May Put Your Personal Data at Risk
- Fear, Anger and Attitudes Toward Immigration
- The New (Anti-)Secularism
- Clinton, Trump Poised for Northeastern Sweep on Tuesday
- Trump's Bad Ideas Aren't Un-American After All
- The Death Gap
- Why Trump Is No Longer a Safe Bet
- 22 People, $43 Million: The People Clinton Holds Razor-Thin Lead
- It's Literally Impossible to Deport 11 Million Immigrants
- Here's What a Budget That Prioritizes Peace Looks Like
- Does the Military Support Trump?
- Where Are the Wealthiest Voters?
- How the Pentagon Wastes Your Money
- This Election, We Can't Afford to Ignore the Climate
- The Children's Crusade
- When Islam Polices Extremists
- Hillary Clinton's State Department Armed Saudi Arabia to the Teeth
- Free From Jail, Imprisoned by Debt
- American Cities Most at Risk of Zika Virus
- Operation Paul Ryan
- What Trumpism Means for Democracy
- Trump Opens Floodgates of Hate
- Missing in Action: Political Reality and Leadership
- Give 'Tax and Spend' a Chance
- Donald Trump: Foreign Policy's Useful Idiot?
- When Red Tape Is a Good Thing
- Trump Holds Strong Lead in New York, Clinton-Sanders Race Tightens
- These States Give the Most Money to the Presidential Race
- The Most Influential Presidential Power Couples
- The Most Influential First Ladies
- Wall Street Should Pay a Sales Tax, Too
- Cruz, Not Trump, Has Shot to Beat Clinton
- Republicans Who Really Don't Like Donald Trump
- What Would Nancy Reagan Say?
- The Humpty Dumpty Party
- What Are Trump's Values -- and America's?
- Primary Trends: Media Goes Crazy, Bettors Yawn
- Most Liberal Members of Congress
- Most Conservative Members of Congress
- 25 Facts About Abraham Lincoln
- 25 Facts About John F. Kennedy
Politics: "Clinton Holds Razor-Thin Lead"